Is the bottom already behind us?

Been sitting on this for a couple of days because I keep going back and forth on it.

We're about 49% off the October high, price has been glued to the mid 60s for weeks, and realized vol is about as dead as I've seen it. Everyone I know is either quietly DCAing or has just stopped opening the app.

Watched a Milk Road interview with Matt Crosby, onchain analyst, and his argument is basically that the capitulation already happened. He walks through several indicators that hit levels which historically only show up around bear market bottoms, and his take is that waiting for a clean $50K wick, or for an October bottom because "that's what usually happens," is anchoring to a pattern instead of reading the actual data.

The part I found more interesting than the number was the framing. Long bleed, then sideways at low volatility, is what bottoms look like in hindsight, and it never feels like an opportunity while you're sitting in it. Bottoms are boring, not dramatic.

Where I'm skeptical: onchain bottom signals have fired early plenty of times before. And most of those indicators were calibrated on cycles where BTC didn't have this much ETF and institutional flow underneath it. The holder base is structurally different now, so I'm not sure the historical comparisons carry the same weight they used to.

Real question for people who have been through more than one cycle: do you still weight onchain metrics for timing, or has that stopped being useful for you? And does this stretch feel like late 2022 to anyone, or is that just what we all want it to feel like?